Wednesday, 1 February 2017

ITFA AT THE BCR FRANKFURT CONFERENCE

ITFA has hit the 2017 conference trail moderating two panels at the recent BCR Supply Chain Finance Summit in Frankfurt. Both panels drew great interest from the audience and overran their allotted time through the sheer number of questions from a very engaged audience.  Feedback has been consistent in viewing these panels as amongst the most thought-provoking and valuable of the conference.   

Silja Calac firstly led an ITFA insurance committee team talking about the function and current challenges facing Credit Risk Insurance. ITFA is grateful to Manuel Lopez from Marsh, Simon Bessant from Texel and Huw Owen from Liberty for taking part. This was firstly a run-through the recently published ITFA Insurance Guidelines which aims to help users and providers of insurance achieve Basel and Insurance Act complaint policies. The full guide is, of course, only available to members but Silja set out the main issues for those not fortunate to enjoy membership. Whilst some of the issues are very technical, mastering them is critical if users wish to obtain the best possible capital relief and, at a more basic level, ensure that policies are enforceable and valid claims can be made. The recent English Insurance Act 2015 (many policies are subject to English law even if used by non-English insureds so the Act has relevance way beyond the United Kingdom) gives new rights to users of insurance but a number of subtle points can arise.  Discussion of the Act was a springboard to enter into a wider survey of the  credit risk insurance market which sparked much interest as the audience realised how powerful use of this product could be commercially. It has the ability to act as a ''force multiplier'' allowing bigger tickets and more business to be underwritten whilst simultaneously being capital efficient. The common belief that claims are never paid and insurers do all they can to avoid payment was dispelled by both brokers and underwriters. Calls at the end of the conference for more credit insurance to be made available showed how well this panel had hit its mark.

Sean Edwards’s panel on Moody’s recent paper on Abengoa was both a reprise, and a development of, the panel he moderated at the 2016 annual conference in Warsaw. Again, Matthias Heck of Moody’s and author of the Abengoa paper took the stand partnered, this time, by Eugenio Cavenaghi of Santander.  As recipients of our regular emails will be aware, ITFA met with Moody’s in December to discuss the implications of their paper which suggested that, in certain circumstances, trade debt offered up to banks as part of a payables financing programme could become bank debt. Moody’s have since accepted in their revised adjustment methodology that a standard i.e. automatically applicable, adjustment for users of such programmes was not appropriate and that each situation would need separate and careful analysis. For many members of the audience, even the possibility that such a reclassification of trade debt existed was something of a shock and drew some passionate responses. The discussion around the various factors which would or could be taken into account in making this analysis was therefore both highly instructive and, once cooler thought prevailed, something of a relief. These factors include whether or not payment terms are changed beyond the industry norm, changes to rights of creditors (still an issue because of the widespread use of irrevocable payment undertakings in such structures), the size of the programme as a proportion of a corporate’s financing needs, collateralisation or security being granted by the buyer and above all, the transparency of the programme. This was one of the most popular panels of the whole conference as attested by the conversations that continued into the break and beyond. ITFA will be producing a paper on this important subject with guidance and as much clarification from Moody’s as we are able to get.      

TRADE'S TECTONIC PLATES - CHART OF THE MONTH by Dr Rebecca Harding, Equant Analytics

Where will the biggest impact of President Trump’s Executive Actions be? The Transpacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TPP) look to be things of the past. The North America Free Trade Area (NATFA) will be undermined by the ongoing diplomatic and trade disputes with Mexico.  Trade, not US trade, but the flows and patterns of trade around the world will be transformed if the decisions translate into real action.

The US will not necessarily be the main beneficiary of the “bi-lateralisation” of its trade policy. Longer term growth to 2020 presents US trade policy with several issues (Figure 1) irrespective of recent changes:
  • Imports from Asia Pacific will grow at over 1.5 times the rate of exports to Asia Pacific. China is the exception, where exports will grow more quickly than imports. But as the US imports from China at nearly five times the rate that it exports to China, the faster rate of export growth is unlikely to have much long term impact on US net trade.
  • Exports to NAFTA look likely to increase more rapidly than imports. NAFTA works well for the US and any trade war with Mexico or disintegration of the regional trade area could damage US exports as much as it hurts Mexico.
  • Germany argues that the ECB keeps interest rates low which keeps the Euro low; President Trump argues that Germany benefits from the low value of the Euro and certainly the US will be importing from Germany at nearly twice the rate of growth that it exports to Germany. We expect faster growth in US imports from both the EU27 and the Eurozone as well.

Figure 1: Annualised growth in US trade with top ten partners and regions, 2015-2020 (%)

Source:  Equant Analytics


Thursday, 12 January 2017

CHAIRMAN'S MESSAGE - Sean Edwards, ITFA Chairman / Head of Legal at SMBC

Dear Members and Friends,

On behalf of the ITFA Board, I would like to take this opportunity to wish you all a very Happy New Year and all the very best for 2017. May the year ahead bring good health, peace and prosperity.

The ITFA team is currently in the process of compiling a list of scheduled events for the year ahead. The 2017 Events Calendar can be viewed on our ITFA website and will be updated on an ongoing basis. Click on this link to find out more information about our events.

To think that emerging markets would have had the run they did in 2016 following the dismal start to the year, and come out of it more than unscathed is no mean feat. Let's face it, 2016 was a challenging year for emerging markets, but comparative performance against 2015 helped alongside favourable views of EM resilience and future growth.

In December, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points, indicating that in 2017 there could be yet another three rate hikes should positive economic conditions persist and warrant such a move. This unsurprisingly had an adverse effect on Emerging Markets but nevertheless ended the year with an optimistic momentum. Having said that, 2016 is inevitably not going to be repeated so we must all remain with our feet held tightly to the ground in 2017 and embrace ourselves for an era of possible higher interest rates in the US, so all eyes will be on the US dollar this year.

Amongst the themes which are likely to arise in trade this year are digitisation and a hoped-for reversal in the tide of compliance and regulation, the latter aided by pronouncements from the impending Trump presidency. In digitisation, many predict the scales will fall from the eyes of the cyber-dinosaurs as the old embrace the possibilities for new products (or maybe repackaged e-versions of old ones) along with young and start to love the productivity savings which could open whole new customer markets.

In the very first edition of the 2017 ITFA Newsletter you will find an interesting article titled ''The Global Economy: What's in store for 2017'', which was prepared by Giovanni Bartolotta, FIMBank - Senior Vice President; Head of Risk Management. One also finds the regular feature: our ‘Chart of the Month”contributed by Dr. Rebecca Harding of Equant Analytics - Trade in 2017. We have also included an article highlighting the inclusion of an Events Photo Gallery in the ITFA website.

May I take the opportunity to thank all associates, partners and sponsors for their support in 2016. Should any of our members wish to contribute to our website, and become website sponsors, please send an email to alexiavella@itfa.org. Your contribution is highly valued.

We look forward to hearing from you with any feedback you may want to share with us by sending an email to myself, any of the Board Members or to our general email, info@itfa.org.  

Best wishes

Sean Edwards

Sunday, 1 January 2017

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: WHAT'S IN STORE FOR 2017 by Giovanni Bartolotta, Head of Risk, FIMBank plc

The year that just passed, 2016, has been an eventful one. From the Brexit vote to Trump election - both unexpected and fueled by an increase in social inequality, mostly blamed on trade globalisation and immigration trends - rise in economic nationalism will inevitably shape the outlook for the year that just started. 2016 also saw the death of way too many rockstars, but that is the topic of my Rolling Stones article...

Overall, the global economy is expected to fare better in 2017, growing around 3% versus 2.5% in 2016. However, as in 2016, growth will diverge across geographies, with the US likely to benefit from the fiscal stimulus promised by president-elect Trump, large EM economies like Brazil and Russia emerging from the recession of the last two years and China achieving stabilisation of its economy, albeit at a reduced growth rate. The Eurozone remains the big question mark, with large economic imbalances between Germany and the Southern countries remaining, and anaemic overall growth. The UK, despite Brexit, will continue to grow at a higher rate than the continent, also because the expected negative effects of Brexit will not begin to manifest themselves before 2-3 years. Emerging markets as an asset class will also exhibit higher growth rates than in 2016 (expected at 4.8% versus 4% in 2016), as commodity prices have steadied and economic reform of the past ten years bears fruit, however a significant downside risk is given by the continued strength of the dollar and rising interest rates, which might deter capital and investments from these countries.

You are not alone

An important policy shift in 2016, which will be a key theme for 2017, is the fact that macroeconomic policy is not left to central banks alone and to their setting of ultralow (sometimes negative) interest rates, in the hope that this strategy alone would revive economic growth. Political pressure and rising populism (although a negative trend in itself) are contributing to an easing of fiscal policy in the advanced economies. Increased public spending, a somewhat more tolerant attitude to achieving deficit targets in the EU, promised tax cuts in the US (the magnitude of which will however need to be toned down) are all bringing back political responsibility to center stage, easing pressure off central bankers. This is also because ultralow-rate monetary policies have been largely ineffective in countering weak growth, on the contrary contributing to rising social inequality (by inflating asset prices and punishing savers). This is not to say that in 2017 aggressive monetary policies will be suddenly abandoned, however a progressive reduction of the asset purchase programme by the European Central Bank (reducing bond buying to EUR60 billion per month) and a gradual rise in US Fed rates (possibly 75bps over the year) will contribute to normalise the interest rate environment. This is also likely to put pressure on global bond prices, however price adjustments should be gradual and not disrupt financial markets.

Globalisation is not the enemy

Globalisation has been mentioned as the cause for weak growth in household income and rising inequality witnessed in many advanced economies in recent years. Offshoring, rising imports from emerging markets and immigration have, according to this argument, held down wages and contributed to a loss of manufacturing jobs. However, the pace of trade opening has actually slowed in the US and Europe in the last few years, while the decline in the share of manufacturing jobs long predates NAFTA or China's accession to WTO. Sluggish growth in advanced economies has been more a reflection of private sector deleveraging, fiscal consolidation and weak external demand. Nonetheless economic nationalism is a feature which is destined to increase in 2017. In particular in Europe, a number of upcoming elections risk to bring anti-EU parties into power, therefore reducing openness to trade. This would harm the global economy by limiting the gains from specialisation. Trade restrictions would only benefit some producers with low reliance on global supply chains, but this would be generally at the expense of the consumer. It is undeniable that globalisation has made possible for each one of us to carry a supercomputer in our pockets (our smartphone) at a very low cost. Immigration restrictions would also be damaging for long-run growth. In Europe and the US, ageing populations have reduced labour force growth, which has however been significantly offset by net immigration of a generally younger labour force. In the UK alone - which voted against immigration with Brexit - the boost to labour supply, and ultimately to GDP growth, given by immigration has been close to 0.5% per year.

Emerging Markets: back to flavour of the month?

Emerging markets started seeing a slight reversal of fortunes towards the end of 2016, with Brazilian and Russian recessions bottoming out, commodity prices recovering and stabilising, and China seeing the benefits of its stabilisation policies. India, on the other hand, closed the year putting into place one of the bravest social experiments of all times (the demonetisation of its economy, by declaring illegal tender 85% of its banknotes in circulation). While this caused a shock to the economy in the short term, the long term effects should be beneficial, by reducing corruption and bringing most monetary transactions inside the banking system. Turkey, on the other hand, has seen unabated political tensions over the year - from the coup in March to the terror attacks of 31st December - which have weakened its investment environment and its currency, damaging the economy at large. At the moment, the outlook for Turkey in 2017 is the less benign of all major emerging markets.

Oil prices (a significant variable in the performance of emerging economies) has remained stable around 50 US dollars per barrel, also sustained by the recent production cuts agreed at OPEC level. Prices are expected to remain stable or slightly increase in 2017, as the OPEC agreement takes hold and inventories are used up by increased industrial production. Other hard commodity prices (iron ore, coal, steel, copper) have all rallied in recent months, in response to optimism about US infrastructure spending and sharp cuts in coal production in China.

To summarise, 2017 should be a year of normalisation for the global economy, however downside risks are not to be taken lightly. My top three risks are: 1) a political shock in the EU, undermining the European project, 2) a flair in inflation, causing interest rates to be lifted too fast, hence harming emerging markets and EU recovery and 3) Trump presidency turning more populist than necessary - due to his inexperience in government, harming global trade.

NEW ITFA MEMBERS

The ITFA Board is pleased to announce the following two new members.

Qatar National Bank is a deposit taking firm, with a consumer credit licence under the regulated permissions.

The London branch provides syndicated and bilateral loan facilities to corporate entities, including real estate loans to SPV's to facilitate Qatari borrowers to residential and commercial properties.

The branch continues to provide trade finance facilities to European companies exporting strategic goods and commodities and involved in projects in Qatar and the MENA region as well as guarantees and bonds for Qatari companies undertaking projects in Europe.

David Ringer will be the Main Delegate for all ITFA related matters.

TrustBills is an electronic marketplace for selling international trade receivables to international investors such as institutional investors, factoring companies, banks and corporates. Its goal is to be an international receivables exchange for sellers and buyers of international trade receivables with the participation of top financial service providers.

Joerg Hoerster will be the Main Delegate for all ITFA related matters.

UPCOMING EVENTS - SAVE THE DATE

The ITFA Board would like to take the opportunity to remind all readers, of the first ITFA event being organised in 2017 - the NERC, Northern European Regional Committee and Young Professionals (YP) event, which will take place on 01 February at Hotel Café Royal, 68 Regent Street, London. The event will commence at 3:30pm and will include an informative and educational Seminar, which is to be given by known macro economists, followed by a networking drinks reception afterwards. We ask all ITFA members to RSVP by no later than 26 January 2017. We look forward to seeing you at the event!

Another must-attend event taking place at Jumeirah Emirates Towers, Dubai, commencing on 12 February, is the GTR MENA Trade Finance Week. The ITFA Board is pleased to inform you that ITFA and GTR are partnering on this prestigious MENA event. One of the afternoon working groups being held on Day 2 of the event, ''The Art of Structuring: An Education'', the Stream B workshop, will be led by ITFA. Four of our very own Board Members, will be heading the working groups at the event; Zeyno de Vries-Davutoglu - Head of Education Committee, Lorna Pillow - Head of Communication and Membership, Anurag Chaudhary - Head of Institutional Relations, and Silja Calac - Head of Insurance Relations and Treasury.

TRADE IN 2017 by Dr. Rebecca Harding - Equant Analytics

This year promises to be an exciting one for us. With Donald Trump's inauguration, and Article 50 triggering the Brexit process, both in Q1, we are expecting the politics of trade to be at the centre of public discourse. Here are our initial thoughts on the outlook in 2017 and we look forward to sharing more with you during the course of the year. 

The picture for global trade in 2017 is uncertain and likely to be dominated by the politics of trade rather than the economics. We are expecting values in world trade to increase in 2017 by less than 0.3% with 12 out of the G20 countries set to see either exports, imports or both, shrink during 2017 (Figure 1). While we are expecting China’s exports to grow at over 4% this year, this is a long way from the heady days of 2010 and 2011 when trade grew at twice the level of GDP.

Figure 1: Forecast G20 Import and Export Growth, 2016-2017 (%), Source: Equant Analytics 2017


In the wake of the Brexit referendum, the UK’s exports are expected to see flat or negative growth in 2017. Similarly, imports are expected to increase only slightly. This is simply a function of the weaker sterling pushing export prices down and import prices up, but it sends a worrying signal for economic performance more generally as the effects of the Article 50 trigger and broader uncertainty around investment begin to take hold.


PHOTO GALLERY IN ITFA WEBSITE

As we always promise, the ITFA team is constantly working hard to provide more value to its members. This time we have decided to create an Events Photo Gallery in the ITFA website. 

Even though all photos of ITFA organised events are uploaded on the ITFA Facebook page, for those members who have restricted access to the internet, we are now also including all photos in the website. Photos are organised and segregated in folders according to the event in question. We are also delighted to announce that images of past events have already been included in the website for all to enjoy.

May we bring to your attention that the Events Photo Gallery is found in the member area of the ITFA website, and therefore access to the images are restricted to ITFA members only. To view the gallery please click here. We hope to continue bringing more value to you, our members, in the year ahead - 2017.

Monday, 5 December 2016

CHAIRMAN'S MESSAGE - Sean Edwards, ITFA Chairman / Head of Legal at SMBC

Dear Members and Friends,

As we come to the end of this pivotal year, let me first take the opportunity to thank all those members and guests who attended our Christmas Cocktail Party, which was held earlier on this month at the remarkable Victorian Bath House. This hidden gem in the middle of the hustle and bustle of London was host to one of the most enjoyable (I still hear the ringing in my ears) seasonal parties we have yet put on, giving us all the opportunity to further cement those friendships and relationships which are, I think, unique for a financial market and reminisce on the challenges faced in 2016. For the ITFA Board, this event was an opportunity for us to thank you, our members, for your continuous support of this association. To view photos of the event, please click here.

As I write this final message for the year, I cannot but emphasise enough how busy the year has been. Brexit, the US Presidential Elections, the Italian Referendum, tensions in Turkey, the Fed and ECB meetings coupled with the endless list of sometimes surprising economic data across all regions of the world: the improvement of US economic data; an uptick in inflation in the Eurozone; the strong recovery in EM (in the first 9 months of the year); the continuous slowdown in Chinese economic activity; the strong dollar; a strong recovery in commodities and the stability of the price of oil. These are all but a few of the events which characterised and continue to shape what’s left of 2016.

To say that markets have been topsy-turvy ever since Donald Trump emerged victorious is a bit of an understatement. What surprised many, however, is the way markets reacted. And one of the largest movers has been the US dollar as the greenback has proven its worth, with Trump’s pro-business policies pushing the currency towards new year-to-date highs against major Emerging Market currencies.

The dust is still settling, but in the meantime, the administration in waiting is drawing up and short-listing its candidates to take over key roles and is currently in the process of meeting US allies and has already indicated that it is trying to bridge gaps with those countries whose diplomatic ties with the US has turned sour over recent years. Emerging markets are inevitably going to be impacted with this transition in US leadership, in what way and magnitude is still uncertain but the situation is expected to be fluid, at best, in the coming months.

As announced in last month’s newsletter, the regular feature: our ‘Chart of the Month” contributed by Dr. Rebecca Harding of Equant Analytics, has a Christmas twist to it this month: ‘’Imports Roasting on an Open Fire’’. Chris Hall writes about another ITFA event hosted in collaboration with Bank of China (Singapore), and which took place in Singapore last month. Also, for those who were unable to attend Agnes Alderson's presentation at the ITFA Annual Conference in Warsaw, ITFA has provided you with some insights into its sister association, ATFA.

Even as the year comes to an end, we have been busy by taking up the cudgels on behalf of the SCF industry and meeting with Moody’s to seek clarity on their methodology for rating the debt of companies using this form of finance. This follows on from their now slightly notorious paper on Abengoa’s use of these arrangements. Some useful clarifications were given by the ratings agency but further discussion needs to take place and we will let you know when we can report more concrete findings.    
             
In other news, may I remind you all that we are currently finalising the venue for next year’s ITFA Annual Conference. And, as some of you might have already heard, next year’s location takes us to Edinburgh, Scotland’s capital. This magnificent, enchanting and historical, but completely contemporary city awaits us. The dates are now confirmed - the conference will be held between 6-8 September 2017, so please start savouring the tartan moments ahead of us and save the date!

Let’s all hope that the tumultuous events of 2016 translate into the opportunities of 2017. In the meantime, I wish you all the very best for the festive season, sacksful of presents and joy and a new year full of health and prosperity.

We look forward to hearing from you with any feedback you may want to share with us by sending an email to myself, any of the Board Members or to our general email, info@itfa.org.  

Best wishes,

Sean Edwards

IN THE SPOTLIGHT: ATFA & RECENT TRENDS IN THE AMERICAS

For the benefit of those who were unable to attend Agnes Alderson’s presentation at our annual conference in Warsaw last September, here are some brief insights into our sister association ATFA – The Association of Trade & Forfaiting in the Americas.

The association was originally established in 1995, and rebranded itself to its current name in 2007. It is constituted of a 10-member board, and as at July 2016 has around 80 paid-up members, comprising bankers, insurers, insurance brokers, law firms and Trade Finance-related service providers. Similarly to ITFA, it always aims to keep its annual membership fees low and to deliver value to its members.

For example, ATFA has staged a dozen networking events since June 2015, including a successful Annual Conference in Miami alongside CLACE (a LatAm-focused trade conference).

It has also recently initiated a mentor-mentee programme, which is being used as a great way to foster closer collaboration with ITFA: by leveraging our recent experience from setting up the Martin Ashurst Mentorship Forum, and by enabling mentees from either association to connect with mentors from the other association.

Agnes went on to highlight some of the trends that were affecting the US trade finance market – and in turn the global market too in many cases:
  • Growing reach of regulators (Fed, OCC, FDIC, etc) – unlikely that it could ever be reversed
  • Costs of being compliant are steep and often result in loss of revenue, in turn leading to the exiting of relationships and/or lines of business
  • Sanctions – which can be unpredictable, and getting it wrong can be costly
  • Adjusting to a world of low growth rates and sustained lower commodity prices
  • US EXIM Bank – should I stay or should I go?
  • Unexpected overseas events (Brexit, attempted coup in Turkey, impeachment of Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff)
ATFA have also kindly shared two presentations that accompanied some engaging speakers at their Autumn Seminar and Cocktail at the Yale Club in New York; one can be accessed here, and the other here. Whilst not all the predictions were correct, it’s fair to say that there have been some unexpected results along the way this year, which can be perfectly summarised by the title of Robert Powell’s presentation, “2016: the Return of Political Risk”.

We at ITFA are looking forward to continuing our working relationship with ATFA, and hope that our members can benefit from further mutual cooperation and knowledge sharing on trade matters.