Dear
Members and Friends,
As
we come to the end of this pivotal year, let me first take the opportunity to
thank all those members and guests who attended our Christmas Cocktail Party,
which was held earlier on this month at the remarkable Victorian Bath House. This
hidden gem in the middle of the hustle and bustle of London was host to one of the
most enjoyable (I still hear the ringing in my ears) seasonal parties we have yet
put on, giving us all the opportunity to further cement those friendships and
relationships which are, I think, unique for a financial market and reminisce
on the challenges faced in 2016. For the ITFA Board, this event was an
opportunity for us to thank you, our members, for your continuous support of
this association. To view photos of the event, please click here.
As
I write this final message for the year, I cannot but emphasise enough how busy
the year has been. Brexit, the US Presidential Elections, the Italian
Referendum, tensions in Turkey, the Fed and ECB meetings coupled with the
endless list of sometimes surprising economic data across all regions of the
world: the improvement of US economic data; an uptick in inflation in the
Eurozone; the strong recovery in EM (in the first 9 months of the year); the
continuous slowdown in Chinese economic activity; the strong dollar; a strong
recovery in commodities and the stability of the price of oil. These are all
but a few of the events which characterised and continue to shape what’s left
of 2016.
To
say that markets have been topsy-turvy ever since Donald Trump emerged
victorious is a bit of an understatement. What surprised many, however, is the
way markets reacted. And one of the largest movers has been the US dollar as
the greenback has proven its worth, with Trump’s pro-business policies pushing
the currency towards new year-to-date highs against major Emerging Market
currencies.
The
dust is still settling, but in the meantime, the administration in waiting is
drawing up and short-listing its candidates to take over key roles and is
currently in the process of meeting US allies and has already indicated that it
is trying to bridge gaps with those countries whose diplomatic ties with the US
has turned sour over recent years. Emerging markets are inevitably going to be
impacted with this transition in US leadership, in what way and magnitude is
still uncertain but the situation is expected to be fluid, at best, in the
coming months.
As announced in last month’s newsletter, the regular feature: our ‘Chart of the Month” contributed
by Dr. Rebecca Harding of Equant Analytics, has a Christmas twist to it this
month: ‘’Imports Roasting on an Open Fire’’. Chris Hall writes about another ITFA
event hosted in collaboration with Bank of China (Singapore), and which took
place in Singapore last month. Also, for those who were unable to attend Agnes Alderson's presentation at the ITFA Annual Conference in Warsaw, ITFA has provided you with some insights into its sister association, ATFA.
Even
as the year comes to an end, we have been busy by taking up the cudgels on behalf
of the SCF industry and meeting with Moody’s to seek clarity on their
methodology for rating the debt of companies using this form of finance. This
follows on from their now slightly notorious paper on Abengoa’s use of these
arrangements. Some useful clarifications were given by the ratings agency but
further discussion needs to take place and we will let you know when we can
report more concrete findings.
In
other news, may I remind you all that we are currently finalising the venue for
next year’s ITFA Annual Conference. And, as some of you might have already
heard, next year’s location takes us to Edinburgh, Scotland’s capital. This magnificent,
enchanting and historical, but completely contemporary city awaits us. The
dates are now confirmed - the conference will be held between 6-8 September
2017, so please start savouring the tartan moments ahead of us and save the
date!
Let’s
all hope that the tumultuous events of 2016 translate into the opportunities of
2017. In the meantime, I wish you all the very best for the festive season, sacksful
of presents and joy and a new year full of health and prosperity.
We
look forward to hearing from you with any feedback you may want to share with
us by sending an email to myself, any of the Board Members or to our general
email, info@itfa.org.
Best
wishes,
Sean
Edwards
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