Dear Members and Friends,
Believe it or not, we’re already approaching the end of October and we’ve entered the final stretch of 2016, with risky assets including emerging markets having had their better share of what was a roller-coaster ride in the first few months of the year. The rally which ensued post beginning of year sell off, saw a lot of winners within the recovery in commodity prices, stability in the price of the US dollar and search for yield (investors deployed monies from low yielding economies to higher yield emerging market economies). But this does not mean that it was a smooth joyride, and neither does it mean that the last few months are expected to be a piece of cake…far from it.
Analysts expect Q4 to be the most challenging of quarters. To top it all up, mixed economic data points, key central bank meetings, the US presidential election, the price of oil, a weaker sterling, weakness in the European banking sector, Deutsche Bank in particular, and an endless list of ongoing events is expected to keep everyone on their toes. What is certain is that at these levels, there is no longer any margin for error, and following the remarkable performance emerging markets have had to date, a pull-back might be on the cards.
The ICC’s 2016 survey of trends in international trade ''Rethinking Trade & Finance'' confirms, at a macro level, a stagnation of world trade volumes with international trade growing at less than annual GDP. Some of the usual actors are relatively well known: low investment; a readjustment in China. The report also points, however, to the lack of availability of trade finance. And this here, is where ITFA and its members can make a difference. As our contribution to the report (pp.96-101) shows there is enormous potential in forfaiting and receivables finance in general. Forfaiters, whatever their current job tile, are brilliant and creative individuals. Never, it seems, have we been needed more.
On a more cheerful note, in this month's Newsletter, TXF Editor-in-Chief, Jonathan Bell, summarises the discussions held at the ITFA Annual Conference emphasising the role of distribution for trade growth. GTR Editor, Shannon Manders has prepared an article entitled ''ITFA's Insurance Guidelines to Shake the Market'' - two very interesting articles emanating from sessions presented in Warsaw. ITFA also brings you up-to-date with improvements in the ITFA website and last but not least, presents the findings from the 2016 ADB Trade Finance Gaps, Growth and Jobs Survey.
May I remind you all that with the Christmas season just around the corner, the ITFA Board is pleased to invite all ITFA members to attend our annual equivalent of minced pies and mulled wine: the ITFA Christmas Cocktail Party. In the coming days you will be receiving the invite, so we would greatly appreciate if you could RSVP by latest 25 November 2016. As always, we encourage our members to attend this valuable networking opportunity, so please…save the date! May we kindly point out that this event is strictly for ITFA members only and access to the event is restricted to confirmed guests only.
We look forward to hearing from you with any feedback you may want to share with us by sending an email to myself, any of the Board Members or to our general email, email@example.com.