Believe
it or not, we have already come to the end of the first quarter of 2018.
Emerging
markets experienced benign growth and market activity over the past 12 months,
with demand for emerging market assets and services flourishing over this
period. Investors are expected to continue moving money into emerging market
credit, but February gave us a taste of what market volatility could be like,
when it begins to reign in, as there were times where we thought that cracks
could get deeper. However, normality was soon restored.
There are differing views on market
direction; one school of thought suggests that over the near-term markets could
continue to see selling pressure as some investors seek to crystallise gains
generated over this bull market. Others believe that with strong expected
earnings growth and more attractive valuations investors will dip back in and
buy equities and emerging market credit once again.
Whatever
the outcome, what is expected to be extremely challenging in the months ahead is
the escalation of the whole trade war situation announced by the US a few weeks
ago; if it will remain confined and controlled or whether it will impact the
greater scheme of things. US president Trump has often opined that there exist
a number of countries which might be taking advantage of the US and is
renegotiating NAFTA, having exempted Canada and Mexico from the tariffs as long
as they reach a new agreement. At this juncture, it is yet unclear of how
widely dispersed and deep the trade war situation could get. But either way,
this situation is expected to be a major global theme for 2018.
In
the March edition of the ITFA Newsletter you will find an interesting article entitled
‘’Trade Finance Collaboration set to step up in the year ahead’’ by Adeline de
Metz, Unicredit. We also have an article by Andre Casterman, ITFA Fintech
Chairman, ‘’What are the ‘Data Monetisation’ Challenges facing Transaction
Banks?’’ The ITFA team also provides a brief on the trade finance seminar
organised jointly by ITFA and CUNEF, which took place in London on 14 February. ITFA is delighted to welcome three new members; Intix, Sierra Leone Commercial Bank Limited (SLCB) and TradeTeq Limited.
As
you all know, preparations for the 45th
Annual International Trade and Forfaiting Conference which will be held in Cape
Town between the 4th and 6th of September, are well underway. As we speak,
the conference programme is being finalised and will be available in the coming
days. Registrations are flowing in, but we remind our readers about this year’s
Super Early Bird price, which is available till 15 April. We urge you to register before then.
This
year we will be greeting you at The Table Bay Hotel, a hotel which is perfectly
located against the stunning backdrop of Table Mountain and the Atlantic
Ocean. We will be hosting 2 networking sessions with dedicated rooms which
will make great networking opportunities – one of the reasons why our annual
conference is so well attended.
We
look forward to hearing from you with any feedback you may want to share with
us by sending an email to myself, any of the Board Members or to our general
email, info@itfa.org.
Best
wishes
Sean
Edwards